Toyota to Surpass GM in 2-3 years - General Forum

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Toyota to Surpass GM in 2-3 years
Monday, May 16, 2005 8:04 AM
Toyota Motor Corp. last year took a big bite out of General Motors' lead as the world's No. 1 automaker.
Toyota gained by nearly 600,000 vehicles on GM to close to within 1.38 million sales in 2004, annual ranking of the world's automakers by sales and production.
That puts Toyota on a path to catch GM within two or three years if the trend holds.

Nearly a third of last year's gain came from the United States, where Toyota increased sales by 193,735 units while GM declined by 59,323 units.
Toyota, which passed Ford Motor Co. last year, has been taking ever-increasing chunks out of GM's lead. The Japanese juggernaut drew 413,605 units closer to GM in 2003 after narrowing the gap by 254,357 units in 2002. Last year, it cut 586,999 units from GM's 2003 sales lead.

"Right now, there is not enough evidence to say it is inevitable that Toyota will pass GM," says analyst Jeff Brodoski of J.D. Power and Associates in Troy, Mich. " The bigger factor that Toyota hangs its hat on is profitability. Even though they trail GM in sales, nobody comes close to Toyota in profits."
GM sold 8,089,551 units in 2004 -- a slim 50,000 over 2003.

That's equal to a 13.2 percent share of the global vehicle market (including manufacturers selling at least 10,000 units annually) and down from a share of 13.8 percent in 2003. Toyota's worldwide sales notched up 10.5 percent to 6,707,600 -- a global share of 10.9 percent.
In 2002, GM held 14.7 percent of the world vehicle market, compared with Toyota's 10.6 percent.

Michael Robinet, vice president for global forecast services at CSM Worldwide in Farmington Hills, Mich., expects Toyota will hold a 14.0 percent share of the world's auto sales by 2010.
"Toyota is growing everywhere," Robinet says. "It's not just an onslaught in North America or Europe."

The key is that Toyota is investing heavily to simultaneously attack markets around the world, he says.

"Toyota is an expansion automaker, trying to grow in its home market as well as other markets," Robinet says. "GM is really under assault in its home markets of the United States and Europe. It's trying to escape to other markets where gaining share could be easier, but it is encountering Toyota and others there as well."

Paul Ballew, GM's executive director of global market and industry analysis, says the automaker concedes nothing.

"We have no plans to give up the No. 1 title," Ballew says. "Toyota is a formidable competitor, and there are several other formidable competitors out there. But if we focus on growth and improving the business, we will be successful. Maybe next year we'll break the 9 million mark."

Ford fell to third last year with a global share of 10.5 percent -- down sharply from 11.2 percent in 2003. It was the only company in the world's top 10 to see sales drop.

Volkswagen AG and DaimlerChrysler AG rank fourth and fifth in the 2004 rankings.

There are other ways to view the race, though. Ford's total does not include Mazda Motor Corp., which Ford controls via a 34 percent ownership stake. Add Mazda to Ford's totals and Toyota drops back to No. 3.

Throw in GM Daewoo Auto & Technology Co. Ltd. of Incheon, South Korea, and another 900,084 units is added to the GM column in 2004. Automotive News' tally of GM's sales does not include GM Daewoo because GM doesn't own at least 50 percent of the automaker.

Yet GM Daewoo is accelerating faster than any carmaker. Sales increased 55.2 percent in 2004. If GM pushes its stake above 50 percent, GM Daewoo's volume will be consolidated in GM's accounts -- at the very least delaying Toyota's ascension.

Ballew says GM Daewoo should be included in GM's total because most of its vehicles are sold with a Chevrolet badge. GM also has management control of the company.

In fact, if automakers are ranked as groups, based on ownership and operational control, the top five would be: GM, Ford Motor Co., Toyota Motor Corp., Renault SA/Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. and VW AG.

Even without majority ownership, "these groups are working in concert with one another," says CSM's Robinet. "That's the way the supply base sees it when they have to bid on global platforms."

Add GM's various other alliances, including minority stakes in Fuji Heavy Industries, Suzuki and Isuzu, and the extended GM family could be clear of Toyota for many years.

Among the companies charging up the ladder are Hyundai Automotive Group (which may pass Honda this year); BMW AG (closing in on collapsing Mitsubishi Motors Corp.); and Nissan, which is ripe to overtake PSA/Peugeot-Citroen SA.

Hyundai Automotive, which includes Kia, has passed a threshold -- 5 percent of the world market. The South Korean company reached 5.2 percent in 2004. Hyundai Automotive together with GM Daewoo make up one of the world's fastest growing national lineups.
J.D. Power's Brodoski says the Korean automakers are moving aggressively to increase their market share.
With a portfolio of new, higher-quality products and an expanding manufacturing base, the Koreans""are like the sleeper threat," he says.

Global industrywide sales of all vehicles last year, including heavy trucks and buses, totaled 61,387,595. That was up 5.5 percent from 58,184,781 in 2003 and compares with 58,324,475 in 2002. The figures include only vehicle manufacturers with sales of at least 10,000 units annually.

Japanese companies accounted for 30.9 percent of the total -- a gain of 0.8 percentage points of share from 2003.

European automakers' share last year held steady at 33.5 percent, while North American automakers lost 1.4 percentage points of share from 2003 to hold 24.0 percent of sales in 2004.

Chinese automakers increased their share of global sales by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8 percent. But sales growth in China slowed to 7.4 percent in 2004 from a 36.5 percent gain in 2003 as the government put the brakes on sales via restrictions on credit.

Indian automakers did better last year, gaining 0.2 percentage points in 2004 to hold 1.0 percent of the market, with sales topping 600,000. In fact, two of the three fastest growing automakers in the world last year were Indian -- Tata Motors Ltd. and Mahindra & Mahindra.





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Re: Toyota to Surpass GM in 2-3 years
Monday, May 16, 2005 8:08 AM
got a link?





Re: Toyota to Surpass GM in 2-3 years
Monday, May 16, 2005 10:51 AM
(holds keys to his Celica GTS proudly) ...Yea, quality automobiles produce quality figures in 2005 and beyojnd.
Not surprising at all.




*****************************************
its better to burn out than fade away.
Re: Toyota to Surpass GM in 2-3 years
Monday, May 16, 2005 11:02 AM
Not surprising... it seems most of us are jumping ship lately.. and with GM's stock down like it is, it looks like import manufacturers will be taking over soon. Big SUV's and huge land yachts are not where it is anymore... Gas prices are too high and the new market is younger adults looking for a more "tuner minded" vehicles.. look at the civic SI Honda is threatening to bring back... I love J's as much as the rest of y'all.. but it is hard to sit there and think.. hmmm i have had 2 j's with many many of our common "issues" we have in the time my boyfriend has had his one integra and it is worth far more on trade in and runs like a champ ,and also has never had anything wrong with it other than a new radiator because a rock went thru his. Sorry but GM's small cars need to follow the lead Dodge (SRT4) and Ford (SVT Focus) took....


~OPSE
Re: Toyota to Surpass GM in 2-3 years
Monday, May 16, 2005 11:50 AM
Thing is... I'd never be caught dead driving a Ford or a Neon... so... moot point I'm waiting to see this 07 Saturn Sky. Might be my next 'new' car. I will never buy a Honduh. Toyota's are ok, but I wouldn't settle for less than a Supra... tho the RSX Type S is more and more appealing every day.

Didn't GM overtake Toyota for used sales a little while ago? I have to find that news release...




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Re: Toyota to Surpass GM in 2-3 years
Monday, May 16, 2005 1:00 PM
I HATE this guy. his name should be MR CUTNPASTE Anyone that lives in North America and buys a jap car needs a hard kick in the head. You are screwing your self. Hope all the jap crap drivers like @!#$ty low paying jobs, because thats all that will be left when the big three and their suppliers are gone.


Jap Crap SUCKS
Re: Toyota to Surpass GM in 2-3 years
Monday, May 16, 2005 1:15 PM
Quote:

needs a hard kick in the head.

Take your own advice and put into practice. Bring something intelligent to the table and not cause trouble, more so on a ignorant comment like the one you just spelled out.





>>>For Sale? Clicky!<<<
-----The orginal Mr.Goodwrench on the JBO since 11/99-----

Re: Toyota to Surpass GM in 2-3 years
Monday, May 16, 2005 2:14 PM
Dave B wrote:

I HATE this guy. his name should be MR CUTNPASTE Anyone that lives in North America and buys a jap car needs a hard kick in the head. You are screwing your self. Hope all the jap crap drivers like @!#$ty low paying jobs, because thats all that will be left when the big three and their suppliers are gone.


you idiot. the BIG THREE do not care about you! if they could outsource 100% of their production, and if that increased their revenues, they WOULD!

the world is looking more and more like one big market. deal with it. afterall that's what western and american capitalism teaches you. however if that idea comes back and slaps you in the face, you cry about it.

the world progresses, get over it.






Re: Toyota to Surpass GM in 2-3 years
Monday, May 16, 2005 4:27 PM
Dave B wrote:

I HATE this guy. his name should be MR CUTNPASTE Anyone that lives in North America and buys a jap car needs a hard kick in the head. You are screwing your self. Hope all the jap crap drivers like @!#$ty low paying jobs, because thats all that will be left when the big three and their suppliers are gone.


Funny. The only decent paying job locally that supplies to a car manufacturer has Toyota as their largest customer.




*****************************************************************

"The J's weren't designed to be sports cars, the suspension sucks, the brakes are tiny, and the target market for our car doesn't need to be able to do any more than 65mph." - Shifted

A more accurate observation has never been typed. These should be the starting points before any serious performance modification. What's the point of making a serious performer if you can't control it's power?


Re: Toyota to Surpass GM in 2-3 years
Monday, May 16, 2005 4:43 PM
Dave B wrote:

I HATE this guy. his name should be MR CUTNPASTE Anyone that lives in North America and buys a jap car needs a hard kick in the head. You are screwing your self. Hope all the jap crap drivers like @!#$ty low paying jobs, because thats all that will be left when the big three and their suppliers are gone.








Re: Toyota to Surpass GM in 2-3 years
Monday, May 16, 2005 4:52 PM
IT'S THOSE DAMN CELICAS I TELL YOU!!! THOSE DAMN CELICAS!!

Re: Toyota to Surpass GM in 2-3 years
Monday, May 16, 2005 9:17 PM
Dave B wrote:

I HATE this guy. his name should be MR CUTNPASTE Anyone that lives in North America and buys a jap car needs a hard kick in the head. You are screwing your self. Hope all the jap crap drivers like @!#$ty low paying jobs, because thats all that will be left when the big three and their suppliers are gone.


the only person who needs a kick in the head are ignorant fools like you. a car is the second biggest "investment" you make next to buying a home. Anyone that would "sink" good money into a low quality, poorly built domestic car with no resale over a far better built....and in MOST cases american built import car with dramatically better resale is in fact an idiot. If domestic car makers want respect and business they need to improve their products and take quality more serious. Otherwise i don't at all feel bad for them for going broke, this is business and that's how it works.

by the way your a loser.



"Formerly known as Jammit - JBO member since 1998" JBOM | CSS.net

Re: Toyota to Surpass GM in 2-3 years
Tuesday, May 17, 2005 1:06 AM
Honestly? Toyota will not pass GM in 2-3 years unless Toyota comes out with some new models and quickly.

GM is going to have a phenomenal year this year. Cobalt sales are better than expected, the rest of the G6 lineup is coming shortly, Saturn Sky, Hummer H3, Pontiac Solstice and of course the Equinox is still selling very well.

What did GM have last year out of that group? I believe only the Equinox.

The Cobalt is outselling the Cavalier, the G6 is outselling the Grand Am........show me a new model that is CONSIDERABLY not selling as well as the model it replaced then we can start talking about Toyota taking over.

As it is right now, Toyota is a bit over 1.25 million cars behind GM. That means that this trend must continue for 3 more years before it happens, which honestly is VERY unlikely to happen. Just because it happened in a span of one fiscal year doesn't mean anything for the next 2-3 years.

Honestly, and no offense to you at all, but I found the title of this post to be quite deceiving. Maybe it should read "Toyota on pace to surpass GM in 2-3 years".

I'll tell you what, if at the end of this year, Toyota closes the gap by another 600,000, then I will be more interested because it means that Toyota has surpassed the first wave of GM new releases.

But like I said before, I don't expect that to happen.



Re: Toyota to Surpass GM in 2-3 years
Tuesday, May 17, 2005 7:55 AM
JAMMIT wrote:

Dave B wrote:

I HATE this guy. his name should be MR CUTNPASTE Anyone that lives in North America and buys a jap car needs a hard kick in the head. You are screwing your self. Hope all the jap crap drivers like @!#$ty low paying jobs, because thats all that will be left when the big three and their suppliers are gone.


the only person who needs a kick in the head are ignorant fools like you. a car is the second biggest "investment" you make next to buying a home. Anyone that would "sink" good money into a low quality, poorly built domestic car with no resale over a far better built....and in MOST cases american built import car with dramatically better resale is in fact an idiot. If domestic car makers want respect and business they need to improve their products and take quality more serious. Otherwise i don't at all feel bad for them for going broke, this is business and that's how it works.

by the way your a loser.


Dave B, thanks for your intelligent views!!!! I guess because im an American that means i should settle for a lower quality, cheaply made car that isnt worth crap in 3 years!! Fantastic!! Im gonna go trade in my Tc for a 83 Chevette, ive heard those are nice cars!!!

Jammit, leave the poor guy alone, he sounds like a bright guy



Re: Toyota to Surpass GM in 2-3 years
Tuesday, May 17, 2005 8:15 AM
RoNuS20 wrote:

GM is going to have a phenomenal year this year. Cobalt sales are better than expected, the rest of the G6 lineup is coming shortly, Saturn Sky, Hummer H3, Pontiac Solstice and of course the Equinox is still selling very well.

What did GM have last year out of that group? I believe only the Equinox.

The Cobalt is outselling the Cavalier, the G6 is outselling the Grand Am........show me a new model that is CONSIDERABLY not selling as well as the model it replaced then we can start talking about Toyota taking over.


Unfortunatly not true^^^

G6, Cobalt and LaCrosse are slow sellers. There is a 4 month (117 days) supply of Cobalts, Lacrosse with 3 months (95 days) and G6 with 2months at (68 days). When GM averages about 2 months(60 days) in dealers as of first week of April 2005. For the record, Corvette is at 22days supply because they are hot.

Sales have been low compared to their predecessors too.
Buick Lacrosse in Q1 of 2005 sold: 19,281
Buick Regal in Q1 of 2004: 23,701

Chevrolet Cobalt in Q1 of 2005: 29,192
Chevrolet Cavalier in Q1 of 2004: 50,061

Pontiac G6 in Q1 of 2005: 20,712
Pontiac Grand-Am Q1 of 2004:37,246
Consumers are not particularly giddy for GM lately.






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-----The orginal Mr.Goodwrench on the JBO since 11/99-----

Re: Toyota to Surpass GM in 2-3 years
Tuesday, May 17, 2005 9:08 AM
toyota might surpass GM soon, but if gm continues to improve their vehicles (although its at a slow rate, which is why sales are down) then i think eventually they will catch back up....

ill buy another GM car, i love my cavalier, ive had it for almost 3 years and the only thing ive put in it is an alternator....its been a great car, my mom has a 95 camry which has also been a great car

but my dads 01 tundra has had its shares of problems so far, and hes regretting not buying a chevrolet instead.... so i still think that as far as trucks/suv's companies like toyota and honda still have alot of catching up to do



Re: Toyota to Surpass GM in 2-3 years
Tuesday, May 17, 2005 11:50 AM
Mr.Goodwrench-G.T. wrote:

Buick Lacrosse in Q1 of 2005 sold: 19,281
Buick Regal in Q1 of 2004: 23,701

Chevrolet Cobalt in Q1 of 2005: 29,192
Chevrolet Cavalier in Q1 of 2004: 50,061

Pontiac G6 in Q1 of 2005: 20,712
Pontiac Grand-Am Q1 of 2004:37,246


The only one worth mentioning is the Cobalt.

You know as well as most everyone else that the G6 was only available in one option.......imagine that, one version of a car sold 20,000 units. Imagine how much the rest of the lineup will bring to the G6.

I don't consider the Lacrosse to be that far behind either. Granted I don't know if there is anything left for new models for the Lacrosse.

The Cobalt is another one of these late bloomers. It was first launched only available in the sedan form, then slowly the coupe became available, and just recently the SS S/C coupe available. They've still got two more models to bring out until the full lineup is here. I don't think we can compare the Cobalt or the G6 yet.........



Re: Toyota to Surpass GM in 2-3 years
Tuesday, May 17, 2005 5:50 PM
i plan on keeping my crapalier as long as it will last for, no matter how many times i have to ressurect it, and plan on buying a gas-guzzling (or diesel chugging) truck or suv. why? because i want it, i will still drive the cavy most of the time but there are things it can't do, no matter how much i try to make it. it will be a ford, if i want a truck and want it to be a truck it would be big three, car i would look more into "imports", but possibly chrysler (german domestic).

who cares what car you pick, it is like asking why you mod that, it's your money buy what you want with it. it only makes sense to get the best for your dollar,





Re: Toyota to Surpass GM in 2-3 years
Tuesday, May 17, 2005 9:42 PM
Hey guys,

My .02.
Honestly, I think u guys are not seeing the big picture. The u.s. is not the only country in the world. Think wider. E.g. In the middle east, toyota has a HUGE market (including lexus). So dont think u.s. only. TOYOTA is huge. GM market, in comparison, is only big when it comes to trucks in the ME.




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