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Re: Global Warming
Friday, April 07, 2006 5:03 AM on j-body.org
The real debate should be how to survive it, not whether it's coming or not. The cause is no where near as important as the what we will need to do to ensure our survival.

Couple that with peek oil, impending wars, resource conflicts etc.. We are in for a rough ride.

PAX

Re: Global Warming
Friday, April 07, 2006 5:17 AM on j-body.org
Well if we could survive the last ice age I'm sure we could handle another one. Sure we may have to go caveman but you do what you have to to survive.




Semper Fi SAINT. May you rest in peace.



Re: Global Warming
Friday, April 07, 2006 6:54 AM on j-body.org
I think about 10% of the human population survived the last one. We may be looking at similar numbers this time around too.

All it will take is to have all the people huddled at the equator and one good virus. Poof, we're done.

PAX
Re: Global Warming
Friday, April 07, 2006 8:58 AM on j-body.org
And not a moment too soon, too.

What will survive this one is people working with nature, not against it, unfortunately, that's as natural to humans as temperance is to Ted Kennedy.


Goodbye Callisto & Skaši, Hello Ishara:
2022 Kia Stinger GT2 AWD
The only thing every single person from every single walk of life on earth can truly say
they have in common is that their country is run by a bunch of fargin iceholes.
Re: Global Warming
Friday, April 07, 2006 9:13 AM on j-body.org
So who among us do you suppose would make it that 10% ? I've had years and years of wilderness survival training but I got 50 bucks says the polititions who are running the enviernment into the ground couldn't last a month. Keepers example of Teddy Kennedy
wouldn't last a week without his booze.

I think it may actualy be great! No more traffic jams, noone telling you you can't park here, plenty of room at the beeches. Hell this may be just what we all need! Especialy if it gets rid of polititions its got to be good right?




Semper Fi SAINT. May you rest in peace.



Re: Global Warming
Friday, April 07, 2006 9:35 AM on j-body.org
Beaches?!?! What beaches?

Food to eat? Shelter? Clean water?

Let's not pretend it'll be a picnic.

PAX
Re: Global Warming
Friday, April 07, 2006 9:53 AM on j-body.org
Oh I didn't mean it would be a picnic but the whole world won't freeze. Just head south.
As for food get a gun and state growing your own veggies. Shelter? Hey caves worked before right? Clean water? Easy natural springs, or since you now live in a cave most of them have water thats filtered by natural limestone. Just boil it.

Come on guys don't tell me you'd be lost.




Semper Fi SAINT. May you rest in peace.



Re: Global Warming
Friday, April 07, 2006 10:21 AM on j-body.org
I wouldn't be lost. I have survival skills. At the same time I have spent a week in the bush with nothing but a pocket knife and it's very difficult. There are many who will perish. The bodies will overwhelm the living. The rotting carcasses will polute everything with disease. This will not be fun at all.

PAX
Re: Global Warming
Friday, April 07, 2006 10:32 AM on j-body.org
Ok a little Toooo dramatic! Remember it will be a new ice age meat doesn't rot when its frozen. And if its buried in the snow and ice you'd never know it was there. Don't forget we're all heading south cause we're smarter then that. Well the bodies would be in the frozen north not where we'd be heading.

Sure it will be harsh but not impossible. You and I could both make it and so could others. All this would be is natural selection at work. All the fat lazy little creame puffs that sat around watching TV and playing Play Station will die out so that the strong may survive. Nature man, ya gotta love it !




Semper Fi SAINT. May you rest in peace.



Re: Global Warming
Friday, April 07, 2006 10:17 PM on j-body.org
Hahahaha wrote:I think about 10% of the human population survived the last one. We may be looking at similar numbers this time around too.

All it will take is to have all the people huddled at the equator and one good virus. Poof, we're done.

PAX


Could you please give some references for this? Only 10% of humanity survived the last glaciation? The last glaciation was nowhere near a "snowball earth" event, and I'm pretty skeptical that it affected our ancestors to that extent (particularly since we managed to spread and proliferate ourselves, seemingly without much trouble, to North America during the last glaciation). I would also think that the fossil evidence for homo sapiens would be too poor to make any judgements on something like that.

If you could lead me to the papers that discussed this, I would appreciate it.



The 50-50-90 rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there's a 90% probability you'll get it wrong.
Re: Global Warming
Saturday, April 08, 2006 5:38 AM on j-body.org
The last Glaciation ended about 18 000 years ago with the first Human populations arriving in N.A. about 10 000 - 12 000 years ago. Humans arrived at the end of the last Glaciation, not during it. Although it was before the large animal populations could recover and likely contributed to their extinction, it was not during the glaciation but shortly after. The Clovis people very likely crossed at the Bearring Straight, but their earliest settlements are in New Mexico. At that point, North America was void of Human populations. No one can be sure about the scale of the Human die-off, but suffice to save that food was so hart to get they would walk from Alaska to New Mexico to find suitible living space after the ice receeded. Human were not killed by the weather, the population went into decline because of the massive animal exinctions and lack of food (vegitation also suffered the climatic shift).

I'm in the middle of moving so pulling books out right now is not an option. Like I said, there is no way to be accurate with the numbers, but the estimates are large.

PAX

Re: Global Warming
Sunday, April 09, 2006 12:01 PM on j-body.org
I don't agree on your timing for the ending of the Pleistocene glaciation. Geological evidence and Carbon-14 analysis of fossils shows that the Pleistocene glacial period ended around 10000-12000 years ago. The glacial maximum was around 20000 years ago.

There seems to be more and more evidence suggesting that the first humans arrived in North America much earlier than the 10000-12000 years BP that you mention. Here's a crappy CNN article, but I do remember seeing something about it on the Discovery Channel.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/science/11/17/carolina.dig/index.html

There was also evidence found offshore Vancouver Island of humans settling in the area around 18000 years BP. How reliable any of this "evidence" is, I don't know, but I also remember reading evidence of Solutrean-like human settlements in South America that dated quite a bit older than 12000yBP. Pretty interesting stuff, but (if correct) it suggests that humans likely did migrate to North America during the last glaciation (possibly during an interglacial??).

All of this suggests to me that archaeologists have a long way to go before they can say anything concrete about the timing of human migration to North/South America. It's this big lack of concrete evidence that was behind me asking how you (or anyone for that matter) can comment on any kind of human population decline when we know so very little about the earliest humans in North America.

When you finish with moving and have time, I would enjoy hearing your evidence. I do have an archaeology minor, but haven't done much with it in the past 4-5 years (geology pays the bills alot easier than archaeology ).



The 50-50-90 rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there's a 90% probability you'll get it wrong.
Re: Global Warming
Sunday, April 09, 2006 5:15 PM on j-body.org
Well I was dealing with the more widely known Clovis settlements. They are the first known "successful" peoples in North America. Yes, there definately could have been some earliers attempts.

The stuff I read said that the glaciers began receeding about 18000 years ago, signalling the end of the "cold" period within the "ice age". If you can accept that terminology, there is much despute about what an "ice age" really is. According to some, we are still in an "ice age" but this is a warm period within it.

PAX
Re: Global Warming
Monday, April 10, 2006 5:06 AM on j-body.org
Ok but when ever it ended I'm sure we can all agree that we're smarter then the caveman types that lived during that time. And hey the survived, Why couldn't we?





Semper Fi SAINT. May you rest in peace.



Re: Global Warming
Monday, April 10, 2006 7:17 AM on j-body.org
The biggest problem will be food distribution. There will be very few vehicles capable of getting around, very tight fuel supply, and very little food. You can't grow oranges in -10 weather. Heck, you can't grow anything. Even if it just made the tropic temperate we would see a massive reduction in human population.

If you can't grow it, you can't eat it.

PAX
Re: Global Warming
Monday, April 10, 2006 8:26 AM on j-body.org
Thats why you head south! Geez! Hey that'd be a switch wouldn't it, Us citizens pouring across the Mexican boarder instead of the other way around. I wonder if the Mexican president would think illegal imagration is ok then.




Semper Fi SAINT. May you rest in peace.



Re: Global Warming
Monday, April 10, 2006 1:11 PM on j-body.org
Well it's not quite that simple is it? We have agrifood products growing in temperate zones over most of the planet. We will not have that anymore. The tropics, if temperate may be able to produce some food, but nowhere near the levels we are producing currently.

PAX
Re: Global Warming
Monday, April 10, 2006 1:37 PM on j-body.org
Well we'd have to adapt thats for sure but plenty of food could be grown in the tropics to support lots of people. Also I highly doubt this would hit us like in the movie "Day After Tomorrow" this would be a slow going process that we'd see comeing years in advance and that would give plenty of time for people to evacuate to the south. It woulldn't be fun but it is doable.




Semper Fi SAINT. May you rest in peace.



Re: Global Warming
Monday, April 10, 2006 1:40 PM on j-body.org
My understanding is that once it starts, it happens pretty quickly. No, nothing like the movie but say over a period of 5 years or so.. That's pretty fast when talking about climatic shift. Very few indigenous species will have time to adapt. Sure people can, and upwardly mobile animals, but vegetation cannot. Without a healthy biosphere we are screwed.

Like I said before, some will survive, many will not.

PAX
Re: Global Warming
Monday, April 10, 2006 1:46 PM on j-body.org
Yeah but 5 years! Even if it does go that quickly damn near all us humans could make it south. And take with us our animals and whatever animals didn't survive then we'd have to adapt. I don't think as many would die as you think. But as a species we'd survive, true it would suck ass for those who didn't but thats how natural selection works. I know it may seem harsh but thats life.

So no more cow burgers, Do you like Lama?




Semper Fi SAINT. May you rest in peace.



Re: Global Warming
Wednesday, April 12, 2006 6:44 AM on j-body.org
OK, you are talking about a population of over 5 billion people. 2/3 s of which are going hungry now, with our current production. You forget that no vegetation will survive such a dramatic shift (well, very, very little) and without vegetation we are totally screwed.

When it's all over it will leave a nice clean slate for the 5 million or so that might survive and propagate in those conditions. I think 5 million might be optimistic.

PAX

Re: Global Warming
Wednesday, April 12, 2006 7:08 AM on j-body.org
HAHA, Last I looked South America was nothing but vegatation! Its like a ready made green house where plants thrive and actualy consume everything around them. Just look at any of the anchient temples around there, they all needed to be defoleated and cleared of dense jungle. I'm sure our crops would do just fine down there.

I think your 5 million estimate is pesamistic at best.




Semper Fi SAINT. May you rest in peace.



Re: Global Warming
Wednesday, April 12, 2006 8:44 AM on j-body.org
It may be jungle now, but after a climate shift, who knows? What I do know for sure is that the soil there is not good for growing food crops.. Heck, it's not even good as pasture land. The rainforrest that get's cleared for pasture today is unairable, worthless land within a few years. They have a high nutrient valure but only in the very upper soil and after a few years of agricultural use the land becomes completely infertile. That will be exsentuated by the loss of all (or most) vegetation leading to increased rates of nutient leach and topsoil runoff.

You do have to remember that the consequences include far more than a drop in temperature. You are talking about turning entire ecosystems inside out.

PAX
Re: Global Warming
Wednesday, April 12, 2006 9:40 AM on j-body.org
Keep in mind that if we have a climate shift, it will be out of an ice age, and not into one.

The ramifications of that will be hard to determine, because while it might extend temperate zones more north, it might also extend the desert zones north. and hahaha is right--rainforest land is worse than useless as agricultural land (we're talking about as usless as political pundits).

It's hard to say because during the last ice age the sahara had a greater expanse--it might be the same, it might be opposite. What is true, however, is thatwhat likely will happen is the temperate zones will move north--meaning that the great plains will more than likely become desert, the pacific nw. will go from Marine West coast to more of a mediterranean climate, and Southern Alaska will likely be more like Seattle.

Couple that with a lot of inland lakes and seas drying up--it could render the U.S. about as agriculturally stable as, say, the sahara is now, moving the optimal growing places more north--into Canada, and over east, Russia.

In other words, if that scenario happens, America will wilt--we would be importing the vast majority of our food, would have sparse oases--and with our current infrastructure and thinking we couldn't adapt to it.

sucks to be us.


Goodbye Callisto & Skaši, Hello Ishara:
2022 Kia Stinger GT2 AWD
The only thing every single person from every single walk of life on earth can truly say
they have in common is that their country is run by a bunch of fargin iceholes.
Re: Global Warming
Wednesday, April 12, 2006 9:58 AM on j-body.org
So are should we invest in coats or air conditioning? See here in lies the problem........
NO ONE KNOWS !!! And some people listen intently to those who are "experts" at nothing and conclude the end is at hand. I'll worry about it when I need to but beyond that why fear tomorrow? Its pointless.




Semper Fi SAINT. May you rest in peace.



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