The media fall for phony "jobs" claim - Politics and War Forum

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The media fall for phony "jobs" claim
Tuesday, June 09, 2009 5:48 AM on j-body.org
from here:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124451592762396883.html#printMode

Quote:

Tony Fratto is envious.

Mr. Fratto was a colleague of mine in the Bush administration, and as a senior member of the White House communications shop, he knows just how difficult it can be to deal with a press corps skeptical about presidential economic claims. It now appears, however, that Mr. Fratto's problem was that he simply lacked the magic words -- jobs "saved or created."

"Saved or created" has become the signature phrase for Barack Obama as he describes what his stimulus is doing for American jobs. His latest invocation came yesterday, when the president declared that the stimulus had already saved or created at least 150,000 American jobs -- and announced he was ramping up some of the stimulus spending so he could "save or create" an additional 600,000 jobs this summer. These numbers come in the context of an earlier Obama promise that his recovery plan will "save or create three to four million jobs over the next two years."

Mr. Fratto sees a double standard at play. "We would never have used a formula like 'save or create,'" he tells me. "To begin with, the number is pure fiction -- the administration has no way to measure how many jobs are actually being 'saved.' And if we had tried to use something this flimsy, the press would never have let us get away with it."

Of course, the inability to measure Mr. Obama's jobs formula is part of its attraction. Never mind that no one -- not the Labor Department, not the Treasury, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics -- actually measures "jobs saved." As the New York Times delicately reports, Mr. Obama's jobs claims are "based on macroeconomic estimates, not an actual counting of jobs." Nice work if you can get away with it.

And get away with it he has. However dubious it may be as an economic measure, as a political formula "save or create" allows the president to invoke numbers that convey an illusion of precision. Harvard economist and former Bush economic adviser Greg Mankiw calls it a "non-measurable metric." And on his blog, he acknowledges the political attraction.

"The expression 'create or save,' which has been used regularly by the President and his economic team, is an act of political genius," writes Mr. Mankiw. "You can measure how many jobs are created between two points in time. But there is no way to measure how many jobs are saved. Even if things get much, much worse, the President can say that there would have been 4 million fewer jobs without the stimulus."

Mr. Obama's comments yesterday are a perfect illustration of just such a claim. In the months since Congress approved the stimulus, our economy has lost nearly 1.6 million jobs and unemployment has hit 9.4%. Invoke the magic words, however, and -- presto! -- you have the president claiming he has "saved or created" 150,000 jobs. It all makes for a much nicer spin, and helps you forget this is the same team that only a few months ago promised us that passing the stimulus would prevent unemployment from rising over 8%.

It's not only former Bush staffers such as Messrs. Fratto and Mankiw who have noted the political convenience here. During a March hearing of the Senate Finance Committee, Chairman Max Baucus challenged Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on the formula.

"You created a situation where you cannot be wrong," said the Montana Democrat. "If the economy loses two million jobs over the next few years, you can say yes, but it would've lost 5.5 million jobs. If we create a million jobs, you can say, well, it would have lost 2.5 million jobs. You've given yourself complete leverage where you cannot be wrong, because you can take any scenario and make yourself look correct."

Now, something's wrong when the president invokes a formula that makes it impossible for him to be wrong and it goes largely unchallenged. It's true that almost any government spending will create some jobs and save others. But as Milton Friedman once pointed out, that doesn't tell you much: The government, after all, can create jobs by hiring people to dig holes and fill them in.

If the "saved or created" formula looks brilliant, it's only because Mr. Obama and his team are not being called on their claims. And don't expect much to change. So long as the news continues to repeat the administration's line that the stimulus has already "saved or created" 150,000 jobs over a time period when the U.S. economy suffered an overall job loss 10 times that number, the White House would be insane to give up a formula that allows them to spin job losses into jobs saved.

"You would think that any self-respecting White House press corps would show some of the same skepticism toward President Obama's jobs claims that they did toward President Bush's tax cuts," says Mr. Fratto. "But I'm still waiting."


interesting... to say the least...



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“When you come across a big kettle of crazy, it’s best not to stir it.”



Re: The media fall for phony "jobs" claim
Tuesday, June 09, 2009 11:42 AM on j-body.org
What cracks me up is that people eat this @!#$ up.

In the political world it is brilliant, no one can actually disprove your claims of saving jobs, Mr. Fratto is jealous that he didn't think up this political maneuver first.


KevinP (Stabby McShankyou) wrote:


and I'm NOT a pedo. everyone knows i've got a wheelchair fetish.


Re: The media fall for phony "jobs" claim
Tuesday, June 09, 2009 12:54 PM on j-body.org
the people who buy this @!#$ are idiots.






Re: The media fall for phony "jobs" claim
Tuesday, June 09, 2009 1:01 PM on j-body.org
This drives a point home right here:
Quote:

In the months since Congress approved the stimulus, our economy has lost nearly 1.6 million jobs and unemployment has hit 9.4%. Invoke the magic words, however, and -- presto! -- you have the president claiming he has "saved or created" 150,000 jobs. It all makes for a much nicer spin, and helps you forget this is the same team that only a few months ago promised us that passing the stimulus would prevent unemployment from rising over 8%.

The "stimulus" bill was soooo important, and had to be rushed through because we couldn't afford to wait, and here are the very stats proving what a bunch of bullsh!t it was. It was supposed to keep us from hitting a point we hit about 6 weeks after it was signed. Now they are calling for rushing more of it through, because it worked so well so far. Another great point that I heard in a press conference , was when a reporter asked about the 125,000 jobs that are only part-time summer jobs being counted as some of the jobs "created or saved" (IIRC, it was Jay Carney who answered the question). The answer was a bunch of bumbling idiocy. If I can find it somewhere, I'll post it up.

This article is a also a good illustration of how this administration really does master the art of political rhetoric and double speak .







Re: The media fall for phony "jobs" claim
Wednesday, June 10, 2009 9:40 AM on j-body.org
allot of it has to do with not being questioned by allot of people. hell i could sit here in my office and say, me picking my but will create or save 1 million jobs. and you really couldn't disprove it. harrington is right in that it is a great play on words. and thats what americans wanted, a man who has a way with words. me personally i'd rather have guy stand there and tell me were scrwed, were going to lose thousands of jobs but were going to work on fixing it versus a guy saying were going to create or save jobs. plain english means were going to make some jobs or we wont.

i always had problems with "RUSHING" the stimulus package thru. nothing like rushing out to spend billions of dollars on a two day meeting because you can't wait. big phrase around my office goes like this " people seem to never have the time to do it right the first time but they manage to have the time to do it a second time" something as big as this should never be rushed. rushing just leads to mistakes and failure.


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Re: The media fall for phony "jobs" claim
Wednesday, June 10, 2009 10:43 AM on j-body.org
Regarding the stimulus, and how it had to be rushed because we couldn't wait, and if you remember correctly, the majority of Americans wanted to see it passed (because they believed the rhetoric that we would crash and burn without it), Rasmussen just released a few interesting poll numbers.

45% of Americans want the rest of the ARRA bill canceled

And slightly off topic, but very interesting, is this one: 44% of Americans believe the Constitution does not limit government enough, which is a major shift since last year.

Right now the standings are: 44% believe it needs to restrict more, 38% say it's good enough
Last year the standings were:38% believe it needs to restrict more, 59% say it's good enough






Re: The media fall for phony "jobs" claim
Thursday, June 11, 2009 12:13 AM on j-body.org
J03Y wrote:

the people who buy this @!#$ are idiots.


90% of the worlds population are idiots........

So ya.... we're screwed...





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